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Cold Takes

In-depth post each Tuesday. Other posts on some other days.

Sep
23

The Most Important Century (in a nutshell)

9 min read
Sep
21

Why AI alignment could be hard with modern deep learning

18 min read
Sep
17

Asimov's Chronology of Science and Discovery

4 min read
Sep
15

Call to Vigilance

5 min read
Sep
14

How to make the best of the most important century?

16 min read
Sep
09

One Cold Link: “The Past and Future of Economic Growth: A Semi-Endogenous Perspective”

6 min read
Sep
08

Medium Lights

2 min read
Sep
07

AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the "Experts," Stand

13 min read
Sep
02

Cold Links: Useful

3 min read
Aug
31

Forecasting transformative AI: the "biological anchors" method in a nutshell

21 min read
Aug
27

More on “multiple world-size economies per atom”

8 min read
Aug
26

The gloves are off, the pants are on

4 min read
Aug
24

Are we "trending toward" transformative AI? (How would we know?)

12 min read
Aug
19

Cold Links: heartwarming sports stuff

3 min read
Aug
17

Forecasting transformative AI: what's the burden of proof?

19 min read
Aug
12

A few quick links re: COVID-19/Delta

3 min read
Aug
11

Give Sports a Chance

4 min read
Aug
10

Forecasting Transformative AI, Part 1: What Kind of AI?

13 min read
Aug
05

Why talk about 10,000 years from now?

4 min read
Aug
04

The Great Depression, Recession and Stagnation in Full Historical Context

1 min read
Aug
03

This Can't Go On

13 min read
Jul
29

Imagining yourself as a digital person (two sketches)

11 min read
Jul
28

Does X cause Y? An in-depth evidence review

9 min read
Jul
27

Digital People FAQ

23 min read
Jul
27

Digital People Would Be An Even Bigger Deal

19 min read
Jul
23

Gallup website notes

4 min read
Jul
21

Track records for those who have made lots of predictions

3 min read
Jul
20

The Duplicator: Instant Cloning Would Make the World Economy Explode

11 min read
Jul
15

Phil Birnbaum's "bad regression" puzzles

3 min read
Jul
14

Honesty about reading

3 min read
Jul
13

All Possible Views About Humanity's Future Are Wild

13 min read
Jul
13

First Post

3 min read