Jan

18

Good job opportunities for helping with the most important century

5 min read

Feb

28

What does Bing Chat tell us about AI risk?

3 min read

Feb

24

How major governments can help with the most important century

6 min read

Feb

20

What AI companies can do today to help with the most important century

13 min read

Feb

10

Jobs that can help with the most important century

36 min read

Jan

25

Spreading messages to help with the most important century

21 min read

Jan

13

How we could stumble into AI catastrophe

36 min read

Jan

05

Transformative AI issues (not just misalignment): an overview

25 min read

Dec

22

Racing through a minefield: the AI deployment problem

16 min read

Dec

15

High-level hopes for AI alignment

23 min read

Dec

08

AI Safety Seems Hard to Measure

23 min read

Nov

29

Why Would AI "Aim" To Defeat Humanity?

39 min read

Sep

05

Beta Readers are Great

2 min read

Jun

30

The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine

14 min read

Jun

23

Nonprofit Boards are Weird

23 min read

Jun

09

AI Could Defeat All Of Us Combined

20 min read

Apr

12

Useful Vices for Wicked Problems

20 min read

Apr

05

Ideal governance (for companies, countries and more)

17 min read

Mar

29

Debating myself on whether “extra lives lived” are as good as “deaths prevented”

18 min read

Mar

18

Cold Takes reader survey - let me know what you want more and less of!

1 min read

Mar

09

Programming note

1 min read

Mar

02

The Wicked Problem Experience

12 min read

Feb

22

Learning By Writing

12 min read

Feb

18

Misc thematic links

7 min read

Feb

15

Defending One-Dimensional Ethics

20 min read

Feb

11

To Match the Greats, Don’t Follow In Their Footsteps

5 min read

Feb

08

"Moral progress" vs. the simple passage of time

4 min read

Feb

03

Investigating musical genius by listening to the Beach Boys a lot

5 min read

Feb

02

Future-proof ethics

19 min read

Jan

27

Cost disease and civilizational decline

6 min read

Jan

25

Reader reactions and update on "Where's Today's Beethoven"

12 min read

Jan

20

Book non-review: The Dawn of Everything

4 min read

Jan

18

Empowerment and Stakeholder Management

8 min read

Jan

14

Assorted cold-ish links

4 min read

Jan

11

Why it matters if "ideas get harder to find"

7 min read

Jan

07

How artistic ideas could get harder to find

11 min read

Jan

06

Seeking beta readers

1 min read

Jan

05

AI alignment research links

8 min read

Jan

04

Where's Today's Beethoven?

25 min read

Dec

28

What counts as death?

7 min read

Dec

23

Utopia links

4 min read

Dec

22

Bet with Zvi about Omicron

5 min read

Dec

21

Bayesian Mindset

29 min read

Dec

17

Cold Links: misc

3 min read

Dec

14

Visualizing Utopia

15 min read

Dec

10

TV shows I wish I could watch: Intergalactic Immigration Wars

2 min read

Dec

07

Why Describing Utopia Goes Badly

14 min read

Dec

06

Candidate for “highest-stakes question of the next several months” (rare hot take)

5 min read

Dec

02

No need to click

2 min read

Nov

30

Did life get better during the pre-industrial era? (Ehhhh)

19 min read

Nov

23

Minimal-trust investigations

16 min read

Nov

19

Tool-assisted speedrunning

6 min read

Nov

18

“Biological anchors” is about bounding, not pinpointing, AI timelines

13 min read

Nov

16

Falling everyday violence, bigger wars and atrocities: how do they net out?

11 min read

Nov

11

Weak point in “most important century”: lock-in

11 min read

Nov

09

Rowing, Steering, Anchoring, Equity, Mutiny

22 min read

Nov

04

Hunter-gatherer happiness

4 min read

Nov

02

Unraveling the evidence about violence among very early humans

23 min read

Oct

29

Cold Links: nonfiction yarns

2 min read

Oct

28

Weak point in “most important century”: full automation

4 min read

Oct

26

Was life better in hunter-gatherer times?

19 min read

Oct

20

Reading books vs. engaging with them

5 min read

Oct

19

Pre-agriculture gender relations seem bad

17 min read

Oct

15

Cold Links: assorted sports longreads

2 min read

Oct

14

If I were a billion years old

2 min read

Oct

12

Has life gotten better?: the post-industrial era

12 min read

Oct

07

“Technological unemployment” AI vs. “most important century” AI: how far apart?

4 min read

Oct

05

Has Life Gotten Better?

9 min read

Oct

01

Gell-Mann Earworms

5 min read

Sep

28

Summary of history (empowerment and well-being lens)

13 min read

Sep

24

Cold Links: assorted fun basketball stuff

1 min read

Sep

23

The Most Important Century (in a nutshell)

9 min read

Sep

17

Asimov's Chronology of Science and Discovery

4 min read

Sep

15

Call to Vigilance

5 min read

Sep

14

How to make the best of the most important century?

16 min read

Sep

09

One Cold Link: “The Past and Future of Economic Growth: A Semi-Endogenous Perspective”

6 min read

Sep

08

Medium Lights

2 min read

Sep

07

AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the "Experts," Stand

13 min read

Sep

02

Cold Links: Useful

3 min read

Aug

31

Forecasting transformative AI: the "biological anchors" method in a nutshell

21 min read

Aug

27

More on “multiple world-size economies per atom”

8 min read

Aug

26

The gloves are off, the pants are on

4 min read

Aug

24

Are we "trending toward" transformative AI? (How would we know?)

12 min read

Aug

19

Cold Links: heartwarming sports stuff

3 min read

Aug

17

Forecasting transformative AI: what's the burden of proof?

17 min read

Aug

12

A few quick links re: COVID-19/Delta

3 min read

Aug

11

Give Sports a Chance

4 min read

Aug

10

Forecasting Transformative AI, Part 1: What Kind of AI?

13 min read

Aug

05

Why talk about 10,000 years from now?

4 min read

Aug

04

The Great Depression, Recession and Stagnation in Full Historical Context

1 min read

Aug

03

This Can't Go On

13 min read

Jul

29

Imagining yourself as a digital person (two sketches)

11 min read

Jul

28

Does X cause Y? An in-depth evidence review

9 min read

Jul

27

Digital People FAQ

23 min read

Jul

27

Digital People Would Be An Even Bigger Deal

19 min read

Jul

23

Gallup website notes

4 min read

Jul

21

Track records for those who have made lots of predictions

3 min read

Jul

20

The Duplicator: Instant Cloning Would Make the World Economy Explode

11 min read

Jul

15

Phil Birnbaum's "bad regression" puzzles

3 min read

Jul

14

Honesty about reading

3 min read

Jul

13

All Possible Views About Humanity's Future Are Wild

13 min read

Jul

13

First Post

3 min read