Cold Links: assorted sports longreads
If I were a billion years old
Has life gotten better?: the post-industrial era
“Technological unemployment” AI vs. “most important century” AI: how far apart?
Has Life Gotten Better?
Summary of history (empowerment and well-being lens)
Cold Links: assorted fun basketball stuff
The Most Important Century (in a nutshell)
Asimov's Chronology of Science and Discovery
Call to Vigilance
How to make the best of the most important century?
One Cold Link: “The Past and Future of Economic Growth: A Semi-Endogenous Perspective”
AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the "Experts," Stand
Cold Links: Useful
Forecasting transformative AI: the "biological anchors" method in a nutshell
More on “multiple world-size economies per atom”
The gloves are off, the pants are on
Are we "trending toward" transformative AI? (How would we know?)
Cold Links: heartwarming sports stuff
Forecasting transformative AI: what's the burden of proof?
A few quick links re: COVID-19/Delta
Give Sports a Chance
Forecasting Transformative AI, Part 1: What Kind of AI?
Why talk about 10,000 years from now?
The Great Depression, Recession and Stagnation in Full Historical Context
This Can't Go On
Imagining yourself as a digital person (two sketches)
Does X cause Y? An in-depth evidence review
Digital People FAQ
Digital People Would Be An Even Bigger Deal
Gallup website notes
Track records for those who have made lots of predictions
The Duplicator: Instant Cloning Would Make the World Economy Explode
Phil Birnbaum's "bad regression" puzzles
Honesty about reading
All Possible Views About Humanity's Future Are Wild