I am the co-CEO of Open Philanthropy and co-founder of GiveWell, but all opinions are my own.
What does Bing Chat tell us about AI risk?
How major governments can help with the most important century
What AI companies can do today to help with the most important century
Jobs that can help with the most important century
Spreading messages to help with the most important century
How we could stumble into AI catastrophe
Transformative AI issues (not just misalignment): an overview
Racing through a minefield: the AI deployment problem
High-level hopes for AI alignment
AI Safety Seems Hard to Measure
Why Would AI "Aim" To Defeat Humanity?
Beta Readers are Great
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
Nonprofit Boards are Weird
AI Could Defeat All Of Us Combined
Useful Vices for Wicked Problems
Ideal governance (for companies, countries and more)
Debating myself on whether “extra lives lived” are as good as “deaths prevented”
Cold Takes reader survey - let me know what you want more and less of!
The Wicked Problem Experience
Learning By Writing
Misc thematic links
Defending One-Dimensional Ethics
To Match the Greats, Don’t Follow In Their Footsteps
"Moral progress" vs. the simple passage of time
Investigating musical genius by listening to the Beach Boys a lot
Cost disease and civilizational decline
Reader reactions and update on "Where's Today's Beethoven"
Book non-review: The Dawn of Everything
Empowerment and Stakeholder Management
Assorted cold-ish links
Why it matters if "ideas get harder to find"
How artistic ideas could get harder to find
Seeking beta readers
AI alignment research links
Where's Today's Beethoven?
What counts as death?
Bet with Zvi about Omicron
Cold Links: misc
TV shows I wish I could watch: Intergalactic Immigration Wars
Why Describing Utopia Goes Badly
Candidate for “highest-stakes question of the next several months” (rare hot take)
No need to click
Did life get better during the pre-industrial era? (Ehhhh)
“Biological anchors” is about bounding, not pinpointing, AI timelines
Falling everyday violence, bigger wars and atrocities: how do they net out?
Weak point in “most important century”: lock-in
Rowing, Steering, Anchoring, Equity, Mutiny
Unraveling the evidence about violence among very early humans
Cold Links: nonfiction yarns
Weak point in “most important century”: full automation
Was life better in hunter-gatherer times?
Reading books vs. engaging with them
Pre-agriculture gender relations seem bad
Cold Links: assorted sports longreads
If I were a billion years old
Has life gotten better?: the post-industrial era
“Technological unemployment” AI vs. “most important century” AI: how far apart?
Has Life Gotten Better?
Summary of history (empowerment and well-being lens)
Cold Links: assorted fun basketball stuff
The Most Important Century (in a nutshell)
Asimov's Chronology of Science and Discovery
Call to Vigilance
How to make the best of the most important century?
One Cold Link: “The Past and Future of Economic Growth: A Semi-Endogenous Perspective”
AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the "Experts," Stand
Cold Links: Useful
Forecasting transformative AI: the "biological anchors" method in a nutshell
More on “multiple world-size economies per atom”
The gloves are off, the pants are on
Are we "trending toward" transformative AI? (How would we know?)
Cold Links: heartwarming sports stuff
Forecasting transformative AI: what's the burden of proof?
A few quick links re: COVID-19/Delta
Give Sports a Chance
Forecasting Transformative AI, Part 1: What Kind of AI?
Why talk about 10,000 years from now?
The Great Depression, Recession and Stagnation in Full Historical Context
This Can't Go On
Imagining yourself as a digital person (two sketches)
Does X cause Y? An in-depth evidence review
Digital People FAQ
Digital People Would Be An Even Bigger Deal
Gallup website notes
Track records for those who have made lots of predictions
The Duplicator: Instant Cloning Would Make the World Economy Explode
Phil Birnbaum's "bad regression" puzzles
Honesty about reading
All Possible Views About Humanity's Future Are Wild